Customer decision
New Age Floral
New Age Floral revisited OshunPouch® pricing using simulation; $650K in avoided research cost is a Subconscious founder-attested estimate.
Stated
Sales on the OshunPouch®, an eco-friendly replacement for floral foam, had gone flat under inflation and tariff-driven pricing instability. New Age Floral came with three questions: which product features and price points would drive sales, how to stand apart from competitors engaged in greenwashing, and whether “home compostable” or “commercially compostable” would resonate with customers.
Revealed
Price was the strongest driver in the simulated choices. “Home compostable” outperformed “commercially compostable” on modeled purchase likelihood. The simulator favored $60 and estimated a decline above $100. Two slogans appealed to different modeled segments: “Certified True Compost-ability” for eco-conscious buyers, “The Flat-Pack that Pays for Itself” for the broader market.
Numbers
Figures with provenance.
$60
modeled price for maintaining preference share
Inspect provenance
$650K
Subconscious founder-attested avoided-cost estimate
Inspect provenance
$100
modeled price threshold for declining demand
Inspect provenance
Model-predicted
Stated before the answer was known.
Predicted
The simulator favored $60, estimated declining demand above $100, and favored “home compostable” over “commercially compostable” on modeled purchase likelihood.
Observed
The case record describes an existing product with flat sales. A post-study sales result is not documented.
Michelle_New Age Floral Case Study_Subconscious draft 7 (Drive, 2026-05-15), Phases 1–5
Causality
Price dominated the modeled purchase choices. The compostability wording also changed modeled responses. These comparisons support a pricing and message hypothesis; actual sales effects require market validation.
- Intervention
- Price points, product features, and the compostability claim varied across five iterative experiments.
- Outcome
- Purchase likelihood and simulated market share.
- Design
- Five-phase causal research and market simulation series, each phase narrowing the design of the next.
This research is instrumental in shaping the final pieces of our marketing strategy—messaging, positioning, and creative direction.