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Subconscious

Decide the
future.

Know the cause. Change the outcome.

Causal action brief · illustrative

Which price × message increases choice?

Illustrative Price by Message experiment conditions
PriceValueProofSpeed
$29$2M$8M$14M
$49$11M$56M$24M
$69$5M$31M$18M

Teams using Subconscious work at category leaders.

  • Google
  • Microsoft
  • LinkedIn
  • Pfizer
  • Deloitte
  • Boston Consulting Group
  • Databricks
  • Figma
  • Priceline
  • ASICS
  • Leica Biosystems
  • BetterUp
  • Guild
  • Asurion
  • frog
  • Google
  • Microsoft
  • LinkedIn
  • Pfizer
  • Deloitte
  • Boston Consulting Group
  • Databricks
  • Figma
  • Priceline
  • ASICS
  • Leica Biosystems
  • BetterUp
  • Guild
  • Asurion
  • frog

// What we do

Start with the decision.
The method follows.

What should we charge? Can we take an increase?Discrete choice with priceStated willingness-to-pay, modeled demand, pricing scenarios
Which features and claims actually earn their keep?MaxDiff / best–worstRanked stated preferences, and differences by defined segment
What should the product or pack be?Build-your-own + adaptive choiceModeled configurations and preferences, with cost assumptions
Why should a retailer give us the shelf?Category shelf simulationModeled preference shifts, with volume assumptions stated
How many will they buy, and how often?Volumetric choiceModeled quantities and repeat choices, with calibration limits
Which message or concept wins, and why?Concept test + complete rankingRanked stated preferences under the defined comparison
Who do we go after first?Preference-based segmentationPreference groups; size and value require population evidence
What if a competitor cuts price next quarter?Market simulator on the fitted modelScenario estimates with price, cost and substitution assumptions

These are study designs and modeled outputs. Define the population and endpoint; agree the external evidence needed before committing resources.

Research for
a business decision.

Compare actions. Review evidence.

Define the choice, compare alternatives in a market simulation, and review the evidence before acting.

Researcher review

Check the population, outcome and limits before deciding what to test next.
  1. Randomize

    The action.

  2. Estimate

    Effect and interval.

  3. Validate

    Match the human comparison.

  4. Update

    Revise the study design when evidence changes.

Randomize an action, estimate its effect, check it against the relevant human evidence, and revise the study design before the next decision.

What decision are you
about to make?

// Evidence record

The research record.

The program, replication method, category context and public working paper.

  1. 2023

    Program

    Selected by UChicago.

    Selected for UChicago’s Transform Cohort 2, run by the Polsky Center and Data Science Institute.

    UChicago · Transform Cohort 2

  2. 2024

    Validation

    A discrete-choice pipeline.

    The July 2026 working paper describes a 2024 discrete-choice replication pipeline and its aggregate parameter-rank results.

    Read the working paper

  3. 2025

    Market shift

    Simulated research gained attention.

    a16z discusses AI market research and simulated audiences. This is category context, not validation of Subconscious.

    a16z · AI market research

  4. 2026

    Public working paper

    State what the benchmark measures.

    The paper reports parameter-rank correlation and proposes a harder check: agreement on held-out human treatment effects. It states limits.

    Causal fidelity working paper · July 2026