SECTOR / CPG

Know what deserves shelf space before you fund the launch.

For insights, innovation, and RGM teams: test the product, price, pack, and claim decisions before the launch budget locks. Subconscious turns one plausible answer into thousands of measured shopper experiments.

66%

Of shoppers enter the store with a brand already in mind. The money is in knowing which price, pack, and claim makes them switch, buy, and buy again.

Source: NIQ, Pricing Strategy in CPG Retail

THE DECISION

Old world

Commit production, inventory, and launch media based on surveys asking shoppers which products and claims they prefer. Learn after the item reaches shelf that demand was overstated for the wrong pack or flavor.

New world

Test price, pack, claim, and launch message against modeled purchase behavior. Avoid overcommitting 15,000 units of a configuration carrying $4,000 in contribution margin per unit, $60M in margin at risk.

Pressure-test $60M in production decisions before the line runs.

How the figure is built

Units at risk in the overcommitted configuration
15,000
Contribution margin per unit
$4,000

15,000 × $4,000 = $60M in margin resting on the configuration call

Modeled economics on a representative decision, not customer results. Audited customer records are at subconscious.ai/case-studies.

THE TIMING SHIFT

Today
  1. Ideas
  2. Price
  3. Pack
  4. Retailer proof
  5. Launch
Subconscious
  1. Ideas
  2. Price
  3. Pack
  4. Retailer proof
  5. Launch
Current process narrows slowly. Subconscious tests the money decisions while the slate is still wide.

CAUSAL OPERATING LOOP

KPI shift

More shots at the shelf, with less margin risk.

Shelf-space proof

A few ideas survive calendar reviews.

Products, prices, packs, and claims tested before the retailer meeting.

Margin control

Price moves show up as lost volume weeks later.

Margin, buy rate, and repeat risk are modeled before the move.

Trade spend

Promos are judged after the window closes.

Trade choices are ranked before the budget is committed.

Relative decision leverage. Every read ships with cohort, confidence interval, and experiment trail.
CPG causal decision graphShopper context confounds the relationship between price, pack, claim decisions and buy, repeat, and margin outcomes. Subconscious isolates the causal effect.Uoccasion / channelunobserveddo(P)price / pack / claimYbuy / repeat / margin
Grey arrows are the correlations that make launch reads overconfident. The red arrow is the causal effect of product, price, pack, and claim on buy, repeat, and margin.

ONE CAUSAL ANSWER

Which product earns the shelf, protects margin, and gets bought again?

Walk into the retailer meeting with a ranked slate: what to launch, where to price it, which pack to show, which claim to lead with, and what each move does to category value.

MODEL-PREDICTED

Predicted first, then measured.

The same method, audited: a 50ml facial moisturizer conjoint replicated from demographics alone and checked against the client's own 2,000-respondent study.

Predicted
Choice distributions and attribute-level preferences for a 50ml facial moisturizer, generated from demographics alone with no preference data and no choices from the real survey.
Observed
Mintel's own conjoint, fielded to 1,000 human respondents and repeated on a second 1,000 as blind validation.
Agreement
0.79 to 0.88 Jensen-Shannon similarity across attribute distributions, above the 80% bar Mintel set in advance. The two diverged at the top of the price range, where human demand drops sharply above $34 and the model assumed a smoother decline.

Read the audited record: Nº 03 Mintel

PROOF

93%

validated against human outcomes

350+

replicated human studies

5 min

to run the next decision

SOC 2

enterprise-ready deployment