SECTOR / POLICY

Know which message moves your district before the window closes.

For comms directors, chiefs of staff, and committee teams: test floor speeches, public comments, releases, and donor messages before the news cycle takes the decision away. Subconscious turns one plausible frame into thousands of measured constituent experiments.

0-7 days

Typical benchmark polling fieldwork takes most of a week. The money is in owning the frame while the issue is still live.

Source: Quinnipiac University Poll Methodology

THE DECISION

Old world

Use a $40 incentive and generic communications to drive program enrollment. Reaching 110,000 households costs $4.4M, with little evidence about which message or incentive caused participation.

New world

Test incentive levels, notice designs, message frames, and enrollment flows by household type. Increase modeled enrollment from 7% to 11%, a 57% relative lift, while reducing the effective incentive to $25. The same 110,000 enrollments cost $2.75M, 37.5% less.

Enroll 57% more households without spending 57% more.

How the figure is built

Target enrollments
110,000
Incentive today
$40
Incentive under the ranked design
$25

110,000 × $40 = $4.4M today, versus 110,000 × $25 = $2.75M

Modeled economics on a representative decision, not customer results. Audited customer records are at subconscious.ai/case-studies.

CAUSAL OPERATING LOOP

Policy causal decision graphDistrict context confounds the relationship between a message frame and support, action, or comment quality. Subconscious isolates the causal effect.Udistrict contextunobserveddo(F)message frameYsupport / action / comment
Grey arrows are correlations inside a slow topline. The red arrow is the causal effect of a frame on support, action, and comment quality.

ONE CAUSAL ANSWER

Which frame wins the room before the statement goes out?

Rank the floor speech, press release, public-comment frame, and donor message by what changes support, action, and comment quality in your district or state.

THE METHOD MENU

Start with the decision. The method follows.

Which frame moves the district?Concept test with complete rankingRanked frames with the reason behind each
Which issues actually decide the vote?MaxDiff, best-worst scalingRanked priorities, by constituency
What happens if the attack lands first?Market simulator on the fitted modelSupport shifts under any scenario you type

MODEL-PREDICTED

Predicted first, then measured.

The method is validated against published randomized trials in health and policy, where the correlation with real human outcomes peaks.

0.73 mean Spearman correlation across 43 well-designed replications, peaking at 0.93 in health and policy, across 300 published papers.

Read the audited record: Nº 05 Methodology validation

PROOF

93%

replication accuracy vs. original human studies

417

replicated human studies

same day

frame reads while the issue is live

SOC 2

enterprise-ready deployment

Polls report what constituents say. The numbers above come from replicating published randomized trials, not from matching a survey.