CPG
Case studies
Does a Simulated Yogurt-Choice Study Match Human Behavior? The Ares ReplicationA simulated conjoint study on functional yogurt reproduced the attribute ordering found in a published human study, matching 87% of the measured human ceiling (0.832 of 0.959; see…
Comparisons
Pre-Launch Causal Testing vs. Retail-Panel MeasurementA causal experiment estimates how a proposed price, claim, or assortment change may move buyer behavior before launch.
Comparisons
Panel Data vs. Controlled Experiments: Choosing the Right Tool for a Pricing or Packaging DecisionA brand manager deciding whether to change a price, a package, or a claim usually starts with the same question: what do we already know?
Industries
How CPG Teams Should Gate Packaging Redesigns Before ProductionA CPG brand or innovation team should advance a packaging redesign only after it passes two different tests.
Methods and validation
Are My New Product's Sales Incremental or Cannibalistic?A new product launch into a saturated category can grow share, or it can just move units the company already had.
Industries
Where CPG Product Decisions Break Before They ShipCPG product decisions break at the stage-gate where a choice locks in before it's tested against real consumer behavior, and the mismatch surfaces only after development or media…
Case studies
Does a Causal Experiment Match a Fielded Conjoint Study? The Claret Fish-Preference ReplicationA causal experiment on Spanish consumers' fish preferences reached 87% of the measured human ceiling (0.832 of 0.959; mean 0.73 across the 43 studies passing design filters)…
Case studies
What a Weak Replication Correlation Actually Tells a Product TeamA weak replication correlation, like the .5213 result below significance found here, tells a product team the simulation partially tracked human preference and points to…
Comparisons
NielsenIQ vs Causal Testing: Choosing Before You Ship a CPG ChangeA VP of Consumer Insights at a CPG or retail company already has NielsenIQ panel and point-of-sale data.
Methods and validation
Why a Flat Choice Model Gets Cannibalization WrongA consumer-goods pricing or revenue-growth leader planning a new product launch needs to know one thing before committing trade spend: will this product mostly take share from…