Forecasting
Methods and validation
Why a Favorite Still Loses Most of the Time: A Bracket Forecast Under UncertaintyA single-elimination bracket does not ask a team to be good once. It asks a team to be good repeatedly, against opponents decided by other matches it does not control.
Methods and validation
When a Fixed Forecasting Rule Should Become a DistributionA fixed shrinkage rule can be a useful forecasting baseline. A hierarchical alternative estimates pooling parameters and represents uncertainty, but it still needs to outperform…
Methods and validation
Why a 20% Retention Rate Means Different Things for a 10-User Cohort and a Million-User CohortA marketing analytics lead sees 20 percent retention. Two active users out of ten and 200,000 out of a million have the same observed ratio, but different sampling uncertainty…
Industries
Why a Single Forecast Number Hides the Risk You're Actually TakingA point forecast leaves out the uncertainty and assumptions that determine a decision's downside.
Methods and validation
Are My New Product's Sales Incremental or Cannibalistic?A new product launch into a saturated category can grow share, or it can just move units the company already had.
Methods and validation
What a World Cup Forecasting Model Teaches About Trusting a Model at AllA model can hit its headline accuracy target and still be wrong on the exact numbers a decision depends on.
Methods and validation
From Uncertainty to Insight: What Bayesian Reasoning Means for a Business DecisionA marketing or analytics leader deciding how much stock to buy, how to price a product, or when to worry about churn usually has a forecast in hand.
Methods and validation
Quantify the Uncertainty Before You Pick a Risk PolicyA planner committing capacity against a point forecast needs an explicit policy for forecast errors. A single expected value does not describe shortage probability or severity.
Methods and validation
Why a Single-Number Forecast Hides the Decision You're Actually MakingA point forecast can be useful, but an inventory decision also needs uncertainty and the cost of overstocking or missing demand.
Methods and validation
When a Forecasted-Control MMM Can (and Can't) Answer a Budget QuestionA forecasted-control MMM combines a fitted sales model with predictions of future external conditions.
Methods and validation
A Donor Value Forecast Does Not Identify Which Fundraising Action WorksAnnika Denninger and Abdulhamed Chribati describe an independently developed donor-value MVP for an anonymous children's rights NGO in their personal-capacity PyMC Labs community…
Industries
Bayesian Computation in Finance: Modeling Risk as a Distribution, Not a GuessA financial-model buyer needs more than a point estimate of beta, loss, or option value: ask which uncertainty is quantified and which assumptions remain outside the calculation.
Industries
Where Should the Next Wegmans Open? 7 Checks for a Bayesian Site-Selection ForecastA new-store forecast should separate observed evidence from assumptions before a retail real estate team commits build-out and lease capital or accepts the risk that a new…
Implementation
When Metrics Predict One Another: A Buyer's Guide to Vector AutoregressionAn analytics leader forecasting several business metrics should ask whether their histories improve prediction of one another.
Implementation
One Oil Forecast, Five Models: A Case Study in Model DisagreementThis historical PyMC Labs case shows how several model fits can reveal disagreement before a procurement decision.