Bayesian methods
Methods and validation
When a Forecasted-Control MMM Can (and Can't) Answer a Budget QuestionA marketing analytics lead just allocated $30 million for next quarter's campaigns.
Methods and validation
Predicting Swinging Strikes with Bayesian Additive Regression TreesA model that returns one number is asking for trust it hasn't earned. It earns that trust with an uncertainty band, checked against data the model never saw.
Methods and validation
Gaussian Process Geospatial Modeling: Beyond Hierarchical ModelsA data science or research lead evaluating a causal experimentation vendor needs to know whether the vendor's model treats geography or segments as related, or as unrelated…
Methods and validation
Why a Bayesian Marketing Mix Model Still Needs Calibration Before You Reallocate BudgetA Bayesian Marketing Mix Model (MMM) can tell you which channel looks most effective.
Methods and validation
A Faster MMM Pipeline Doesn't Answer Whether the Numbers Are CausalMarketing Mix Modeling teams spend most of their time wrangling data: pulling spend, impressions, and conversions from a dozen ad platforms into one schema before a model ever…